New Zealand Holds Interest Rate at 1.75%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate unchanged at record low of 1.75 percent on 26 September 2018, saying that economic projections were little changed since the last meeting, as while GDP growth in the second quarter was stronger than anticipated, downside risks to the growth outlook remain. Also, policymakers underscored that rates will remain at this level through 2019 and into 2020 and that the next move could be up or down. The central bank last moved the key rate in November of 2016.
Statement by Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr:
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent.
We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and into 2020. The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down.
Employment is around its sustainable level and consumer price inflation remains below the 2 percent mid-point of our target, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy. Our outlook for the OCR assumes the pace of growth will pick up over the coming year, assisting inflation to return to the target mid-point.
Our projection for the New Zealand economy, as detailed in the August Monetary Policy Statement, is little changed. While GDP growth in the June quarter was stronger than we had anticipated, downside risks to the growth outlook remain.
Robust global economic growth and a lower New Zealand dollar exchange rate is expected to support demand for our exports. Global inflationary pressure is expected to rise, but remain modest. Trade tensions remain in some major economies, increasing the risk that ongoing increases in trade barriers could undermine global growth. Domestically, ongoing spending and investment, by both households and government, is expected to support growth.
There are welcome early signs of core inflation rising towards the mid-point of the target. Higher fuel prices are likely to boost inflation in the near term, but we will look through this volatility as appropriate. Consumer price inflation is expected to gradually rise to our 2 percent annual target as capacity pressures bite.
We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation.
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent.
We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and into 2020. The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down.
Employment is around its sustainable level and consumer price inflation remains below the 2 percent mid-point of our target, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy. Our outlook for the OCR assumes the pace of growth will pick up over the coming year, assisting inflation to return to the target mid-point.
Our projection for the New Zealand economy, as detailed in the August Monetary Policy Statement, is little changed. While GDP growth in the June quarter was stronger than we had anticipated, downside risks to the growth outlook remain.
Robust global economic growth and a lower New Zealand dollar exchange rate is expected to support demand for our exports. Global inflationary pressure is expected to rise, but remain modest. Trade tensions remain in some major economies, increasing the risk that ongoing increases in trade barriers could undermine global growth. Domestically, ongoing spending and investment, by both households and government, is expected to support growth.
There are welcome early signs of core inflation rising towards the mid-point of the target. Higher fuel prices are likely to boost inflation in the near term, but we will look through this volatility as appropriate. Consumer price inflation is expected to gradually rise to our 2 percent annual target as capacity pressures bite.
We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation.
(출처-https://tradingeconomics.com/articles/09262018224620.htm)
여기출처 뉴스를 보면 알겠지만 금리는 2019년에서 2020까지 동결될 전망이다. 취업률은 괜찮고 소비자 물가 상승률은 정부가 원했던 2퍼센트 중반의 아래로 산출되었으며 물가 상승률을 올리기 위한 이유로써 동결한다고 한다. 여기 기사에 나오진 않지만 정부가 원한 GDP성장률은 3퍼센트이며 이번엔 3퍼센트 조금더 나왔지만 나중에 성장률 하락에 의한 리스크가 아직 남아 있다고 한다.
그리고 정부는 뉴질랜드 달러가 조금 저렴해야 된다고 발표한다. 그 이유인 즉슨 뉴질랜드의 수출때문인데 뉴질랜드 달러가 조금더 저렴해야 수출 경쟁력이 생기고 그로인해 뉴질랜드 경제규모가 커지기 때문이다. 그리고 보다시피 미국의 금리 인상으로 큰 나라의 들의 금리는 조금씩 인상되는 분이기 하지만 뉴질랜드는 아직 GDP성장률, 수출 호조, 이민으로 인한 경제인구 증가 등등 나라에 경제성장에 호재들이 있어서 뉴질랜드 달러가 쉽게 하락할것 같지는 않다고 생각한다.
그러므로 뉴질랜드 금리를 당분간 내려갈일이 없으며 사실 뉴질랜드 입장에서도 금리를 인상해도 돈이 오히려 은행이 묶이는 경우가 많아서 굳이 금리를 인상시킬 이유는 없다고 본다. 하지만 부동산 가격은 여전히 해결되지 않았으며 지금도 여러가지 부동산 정책을 내긴하지만 그렇게 큰 효과는 없다고 한다.
보다시피 금리가 낮아서 엄청 큰 자본이 아닌 이상 돈을 은행에 넣어두는 것은 그렇게 큰 이익을 내지 못하는 걸로 나왔으며 그래서 아직도 부동산이 거품이 꺼지지 않은게 아닌가 싶다. 사실 금리로 돈을 벌지 못하면 그외로 투자로인해 돈을 불리는 방법은 대개 부동산과 주식인데 여기는 희한하게 주식이 인기가 없는거 같아서 특이하다.(내가 모르는것 일 수도 있으며 한인들한테는 실제로 주식이 별로 인기가 없다.)
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